Where should Elizabeth run?

There has been some speculation in the media that GPC Leader Elizabeth May is considering running in another riding instead of Central Nova. One comment was that Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound was one potential riding of a pool of 7 or 8. While BGOS may be a contender, is it a good one and is it the best one? Let’s look at the factors for success and see which ridings fall into the specified criteria.

Factors for Success
Tight races – As we saw with London Centre North and Central Nova, having Ms. May on the ballot for the Green Party generates a great boost in polling numbers. LNC went from 5% to 26% and CN went from 2% to 32%. Clearly spending the election limit plus the media exposure of being a party leader does have some advantages. The failure to elect a Green MP in these ridings was due to not having a clearly established and identified Green base of supporters. Secondly, the races weren’t close enough where a stronger Green campaign could pull out a slim victory without 50%+ of the vote.

Therefore, the riding needs to be one where the 2008 winner won with less than 35% of the vote. This means there were at least two or three close campaigns. Call it the Dion or Stelmach strategy… enter a race with two (or more) large campaigns and come up the middle for the victory. Why 35%? Because my original criteria of 40% didn’t eliminate enough ridings (though it makes an interesting list of where to target next!).

Avoiding high profile candidates – If the two major factors working in Ms. May’s are a high media profile and the ability to draw in large resources, both human and fiscal, then the last place she should be running is in any riding where those factors are negated by another high profile candidate. As we saw in Central Nova, the current MP was well known because he was the son of the former MP, the former leader of a political party and the current Minister of a high profile Cabinet portfolio. Putting the Greens highest profile candidate against one of the high profile candidates of another party is a self-defeating strategy.

While striving to eventually run a series of candidates who could be “giant killers” that could remove MPs like Peter MacKay, the Greens need to focus on getting a MP elected before it targets giants.

The Ridings
The natural ridings to consider are the ones that the Greens did well in the last three elections…

Central Nova – The highest percentage for the Greens in 2008. As noted above, the current MP is a very high profile candidate, both locally and nationally, and easily won the riding against Ms. May at 46.6% vs. 32.2%. With a Liberal candidate in the race this next election, Ms. May will be hard pressed to repeat her 32% turnout let alone find a way to win the riding.

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound – The highest percentage in 2006 and the highest vote count in 2008 for the Greens. The current MP, Larry Miller, is a backbencher in the Harper government. While having some local name recognition as a former area mayor, he’s not receiving national attention in the media. However, he did win the riding with 47.7% against the second place Green campaign. The federal Green result of 27.2% was actually surpassed by the provincial Greens as GPO candidate Shane Jolley earned any Green Party’s largest vote percentage at 33%. While many factors are working for the GPC, Miller’s vote share was nearly one vote in two. Ms. May’s ability to increase the vote by 20%+ was done in ridings without a Green base and BGOS has clearly established one. It is safe to propose that May running in BGOS would increase the vote less than 20% therefore her profile many not be enough to close the gap on Miller.

Guelph – The closest race in 2008 for the Greens with candidate Mike Nagy behind only 11% behind the winning candidate. The current MP, Liberal Frank Valeriote, was just elected in 2008 and didn’t hold a role in either Dion’s or Ignatieff’s Shadow Cabinet. There were four campaigns over 15% in vote share with the winning Liberals only gaining 32.2% of the local vote. The 2008 campaign team worked extremely hard on a campaign that went from a byelection to a general vote having them busily campaigning for roughly 13 weeks. The benefit of all that hard work is a large number of identified supporters and volunteers. In other words, the team is built and experienced and a higher profiled candidate could be the tipping point needed to achieve success.

London Centre North – This was the home of Ms. May’s first serious kick at the can called federal politics. Her 2006 byelection campaign drew in 26% of the vote and nearly 10,000 votes which could not be replicated in the 2008 election (10.4%, 5600 votes). While the sitting MP, Glen Pearson, won the riding with 39.1%, he still hasn’t won the same levels of support of previous Liberal MPs. While the infrastructure of the 2006 campaign isn’t there anymore, it would be easier to reinstall than building a completely new team. Further, Ms. May does have some name recognition beyond party leader here having run once already.

Alberta – There are several ridings here where the Greens have placed second however Conservative MPs here won by such large margins that a high profile candidate isn’t enough to win. While the NDP were successful in targeting one of the weaker Conservatives in 2008, the strategy of targeting MP with a minimum of 55% support is definitely “giant killing”.

Saanich-Gulf Islands – This was the home of the Greens’ best result in 2004 and where the beachhead strategy was targeted. There was much conversation generated internally when known-environmentalist Briony Penn joined the Liberals in 2008 to challenge then Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn for the role of MP. The Conservative MP was successful in retaining his job as MP (43.4%) and still holds a position in the Harper Cabinet. While some environmentalists may believe that the combined green-Liberal and Green vote may be enough to win, a memory jog may be required. Some local Greens may still be a little sore about a certain Guy Dauncey’s (then GPC Shadow Cabinet member) letter asking members not to have a Green candidate (and later campaigning for the Liberals) and the subsequent lack of response from Ms. May or the Federal Council on the matter.

Other ridings fitting the criteria
Quebec – There are 4 ridings that fit the criteria of 35% or less however due to minimal amount of field organizing the Party has in the province (the party dropped 0.5% despite attendance in the French Leaders’ Debate), I would recommend passing on all of them. However, a fluent French speaking candidate with a background in organizing may be interested in running in the following regions given the time to build a legitimate campaign: Brossard-La Prairie (32.6), Gatineau (29.2), Pontiac (32.7), Portneuf-Jacques Cartier (33.5),

Welland (33.0) – Long time Liberal MP John Maloney lost this riding back in October to the NDP’s Malcolm Allen. In fact, this was an extremely tight three way race and a pretty much the textbook example of a tight race that the Greens should be targeting. While the on-the-ground organizing may be somewhat limited by the 5.5% showing by the GPC in the last election, this is definitely a riding worth considering putting some resources into to develop a campaign even if Ms. May avoids it.

Esquilmalt-Juan de Fuca (34.2) – Another prime example of a good riding for polling numbers but bad for public profile of the MP. Current Liberal MP Keith Martin has held the riding since 1993 and has been elected as a Reform/Alliance candidate and as a Liberal. The ability to draw supporters from both party ranks makes this an even more difficult riding to win.

Vancouver Centre (34.5) – While this riding does meet the criteria of less than 35% to the current MP, Hedy Fry, it does not meet the criteria of avoiding high profile candidates. Dr. Fry earned the title of “giant killer” when she knocked off then Prime Minister Kim Campbell for the seat in 1993 and has retained it since then. This riding has, quietly, been a money hole for the Green Party as well. Deputy Leader Adriane Carr, who’s been in a paid role since 2006, has been primarily focused on winning this riding for nearly two years. While tens of thousands of dollars being spent on staffing, offices and a transfer to the campaign itself, Ms. Carr couldn’t pull more than 17% of the vote and still placing 4th in the race. Despite the massive investment into this riding, the higher profile of Ms. May likely isn’t enough to double the Greens support in order to win the riding.

Nunavut (34.9) – This is another riding that meets the criteria of less than 35% but fails to meet the low profile MP criteria. Current MP Leona Aglukkaq is the Minister of Health in the Harper government while a little controversy has brewed regarding Aglukkaq and comments made by Natural Resources Minister Lisa Raitt, it isn’t enough to win the seat. Further, this was the home of one of the GPC’s “star” candidates in former MP Peter Ittinuar. Ittinuar could not break a 10% threshold and his name recognition was clearly not enough to win the riding and bringing in a higher profile candidate likely isn’t enough to win either.

The Wild Card
Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley – This is very much a wild card riding. Former MP Bill Casey was a well received representative of his constituents. So much so that in a recent poll by Macleans of sitting MPs showed that his peers considered him the best representative of constituents of all MPs… and it wasn’t the first time he’s won the award either. Even though this region is a strong small-c conservative riding, the local citizens chose the Independent Casey to continue representing them instead of a parachute Conservative staffer who would have spent his time in the purgatory called the Conservative backbench. While the GPC is lacking any organization there due to not running a candidate against Casey in 2008, there is still the possibility that the local citizens may still be interested in extending a one-finger salute to Harper.

Conclusion
The absolute best riding for Elizabeth May to run in to win a seat as a Green MP is Guelph. It meets the two basic criteria needed to win plus it is a riding that has a very established base of supporters and volunteers. If Ms. May and her advisors are not wanting to drift so far away from the Maritimes, then getting into CCMV for either the upcoming byelection or general election is a manageable risk. The voters in that riding are unpredictable and could deliver a Green victory. A distant third choice and more a region to target is the Welland riding in Ontario.

In reality, running in any ridings outside of Guelph or CCMV will be an utter waste of money and, more importantly, a waste of a tremendous opportunity.