… and I don’t mean party as in streamers, confetti and singing either. No, the party I refer to is the Green Party and we have regressed back to 2004.
2004 was a monumental year for the Green Party. We ran our first slate of 308 candidates, we hit 4.3% in the polls nationally and qualified for the $1.75/vote government subsidy. Back then, with over 580,000 votes, the party now had an operating budget of $1M/year plus donations. This allowed the party to grow to 4.5% in 2006 (>664,000 votes) and to 6.7% in 2008 (>940,000 votes). With the government subsidy at roughly $1.95/vote, the party’s operation budget was closer to $1.8M/year plus donations.
Last night there were four byelections across Canada. Two (Hochelaga, MIKR) in a province that the Greens are having difficulty breaking into despite this news release from two weeks ago, one next door (CCMV) to Leader Elizabeth May’s former riding and the fourth (NWC) in a province that is polling the highest in Canada for the Greens. This high polling has also has been used as justification for Ms. May running in BC.
How did the Green Party do? Horrible.
There’s no point looking at the specific number of votes seeing they were in a by-election (and overall voter turnout is abysmal!) but percentage of the overall vote is still important. Could the Greens demonstrate growth in percentage of the vote in their riding? Could they surpass the 2008 national average? Could they bring in, at minimum, their core supporters?
No.
For a quick breakdown
CCMV
2009 – 3.3%, 2008 – no candidate, 2006 – 2.11%, 2004 – 3.11%
A 6% increase over five years
MIKR
2009 – 1.7%, 2008 – 2.19%, 2006 – 3.84%, 2004 – 2.17%
A 22% decrease over five years
Hochelaga
2009 – 3.3%, 2008 – 4.25%, 2006 – 4.85%, 2004 – 2.97%
Make that an 11% increase over 5 years and a 22% decrease from last year.
NWC
2009 – 4.3%, 2008 – 7.2%, 2006 – 2.95%, 2004 – 5.62%
Not only a 23% decrease from five years ago but a 40% decrease from a year ago!
There hasn’t been time for the candidates to release any specifics on their campaigns but if they put in the efforts to door knock, meet voters and identify supporters, then they should be proud of their individual results. Identified supporters are a tangible marker outside of voting percentage and total voters that can measure a candidate’s team success.
However, the rest of us members need to be asking… what the hell is going on!?!?!?!
We have millions of dollars in spending every year and our support is regressing? The best result we see is a stagnation of our 2006 levels of support? We herald surpassing the NDP for support in Quebec and watch them grab nearly 5 votes to each one of ours. We came within 32 votes of placing behind the Christian Heritage Party in CCMV yet their national level of support is 1/34th of the Green Party.
It’s time for our leadership (Leader, Federal Council, senior staff) to start taking responsibility for what is happening with the party. If they aren’t interested in doing so, then they should get out of the way.
UPDATE - John corrected my numbers for Hochelaga. Post now reflects those changes.
UPDATE 2 - Seems David Akin is asking the same question.
UPDATE 3 - Some local commentary from Hochelaga and the non-visible byelection
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
3 comments:
Elections Canada is currently showing Hochelaga GP results at 3.3%, not 4.8%. Which makes it even worse.
http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx
Support for GP is down in all ridings, CCMV not counted.
Average vote percentage in 2008 election in these ridings: 4.5%.
Average last night: 3.2%.
A drop of 30%.
Turnout was very low, but this is supposed to play to the ADVANTAGE of GPC. We get our hardcore voters out, other parties don't, we look bigger than we do in a general election. Well, THAT didn't happen.
This is the first time GPC had a fulltime paid Political Campaign Director (hi, Catherine!) during a set of by-elections. So whatever Catherine did during these by-elections, she should just do the OPPOSITE in the next general election, and we're all set :-)
You know, you both are indeed making too much of some unlikely by-elections. BUT, I share your estimation that there is some political ineptitude at the top. I am certain we come at it from very different angles. Which means that if a pack of guys like you two, as far as I can tell thus far, get close to control at the top, if things get slightly electorally better, it might not be worth all that much for "green" purposes anyway. But I am hedging my comment - "as far as I can tell". I'm now waiting for GPC to prove that any blessing of mine should not be withheld. I could easily accept many things that have gone on that others have sharply criticized. But lack of a higher view coupled with too much personalized preoccupations, coupled with structural problems, I fear that minus some PR miracle, your probable expectations of a continuing GPC slide I'm afraid I'll share.
Still, if you & other readers here care what I have to say, one thread & its continuation at rabble-babble had me going yesterday,
http://www.rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-or-greens-path-peace-economy-yes-magazine & then
http://www.rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-or-greens-path-peace-economy-part-2 , where I am "D V".
I don't know to wish you good luck, because I fear you'd take GPC even farther than its current unattractiveness to me, albeit in a different direction.
"Party" ?? ...
A couple of things come to mind.
First, a song with the Lyrics "It's my party, and I'll cry if I want to ..." (I believe last heard in 2006 in Ottawa)
Second, Dandy Don Meredith - "Turn out the lights ..., the party's over ..."
And finally - Bobby Ferrin - "Don't worry ... be happy ..."
Post a Comment